For Topps, Cosmic Chrome Baseball has become one of their strongest niche Chrome brands over the last few years and while these odds will likely be drowned out by the larger Chrome releases that are coming, there is a lot here worth unpacking.
Data analysis performed by CellDood.
The Lunar Box Issue
A full product analysis is not possible yet because Topps failed to provide several critical details.
Cosmic Chrome has historically been Hobby only, but this year introduces a second SKU called Lunar Boxes.
The problem is that Topps has not disclosed:
- Price
- Packs per box
- Cards per pack
- Case configuration
What we do know from the odds is that Lunar Boxes were printed in extremely small numbers.
Nothing in the odds suggests any Lunar exclusive hits compared to Hobby, although Checklist Insider has referenced Lunar Eclipse parallels that do not appear on the official Topps odds sheet.
Lunar Boxes contain:
- No autographs
- No Superfractors or Red Refractors from certain insert sets
At the same time, several rare inserts and parallels have better odds in Lunar Boxes than in Hobby, which is highly unusual given that they contain no autos.
At this point, Lunar Boxes appear to be some form of Hobby Lite configuration but without full box details, they cannot be properly evaluated. All analysis below is based strictly on Hobby.
Update on Lunar Boxes
Just like 2024, Topps inserted a tiny number of ultra-rare Lunar Boxes into Cosmic Chrome. In 2025 there are 147 Lunar Boxes, each containing packs with guaranteed Lunar Eclipse /10 parallels.
Total production:
- Hobby boxes: 68,235
- Lunar boxes: 147
- Total: 68,382
That means Lunar Boxes appear roughly 1 in every 58 cases, or a 0.215 percent chance that any given Hobby box is actually Lunar.
This only impacts print run calculations by about 0.2 percent, so all published numbers remain effectively unchanged.
For reference, sealed Lunar packs from 2024 sold for $250 to $500 each. With 20 packs per Lunar box, those 147 collectors are sitting on significant value.
One important warning: Lunar Eclipse cards are thicker than standard cards. Any seller weighing boxes will immediately know if a box is Lunar. Buying loose Hobby on eBay dramatically reduces your odds of hitting one.
Pricing
- Topps presale: $330
- Current secondary market: approximately $550
Configuration Correction
An error was found in the original breakdown. Beckett listed 8 cards per pack but the correct configuration is 4 cards per pack. This affects total card production but does not impact box counts or hit rates.
Updated totals:
- Total boxes: 68,382
- Total cards in 2025 Cosmic Chrome: 5,470,560
- 2024 Cosmic Chrome: 4,320,000
- Year over year change: +26.6 percent
Updated base card print run:
- 20,579 copies per player
Later correction based on final data:
- 2025 Cosmic Chrome: 10,917,600 total cards
- 2024 Cosmic Chrome: 4,320,000
- YOY change: +152.7 percent
This is a large increase but still modest compared to other chromium MLB products.
Comparable totals:
- 2025 Heritage High: 14.2 million
- 2025 Topps Chrome F1: 11.85 million
- 2025 Cosmic Chrome: 10.92 million
- 2025 Topps Chrome Marvel Studios: 10.43 million
- 2025 Topps Chrome UFC: 9.34 million
Base cards per player: 47,843
Hit Rates Per Hobby Box
- Autos: 0.36 per box (1 per 2.81 boxes)
- Autos per case: 2.85
- Parallels: 5.47
- Inserts: 13.94
- Numbered cards: 2.22
Planetary Pursuit inserts appear once every 3.64 boxes.
When combined with Planetarium, Supernova and Starfractor inserts, rare inserts appear once every 1.75 boxes.
Value Metrics (Based on $330 Hobby Price)
- Cost per card: $2.06
- Cost per pack: $16.50
- Cost per parallel: $60.33
- Cost per auto: $916.67
- Cost per numbered card: $148.65
- Cost per rare insert: $577.50
Parallel Print Runs
Unnumbered parallels:
- Refractor: ~685
- Nucleus: ~460
- White Hole Refractor: ~115
- Constellation Variation: ~70
Numbered parallels:
- Aqua Equinox /199
- Purple Nebula /150
- Blue Moon /99
- Green Space Dust /75
- Gold Interstellar /50
- Orange Galactic /25
- Black Eclipse /10
- Red Flare /5
- Superfractor /1
Insert Print Runs
Note: Star Clusters (15 cards) and Extraterrestrial Talent (35 cards) have incorrect odds relative to checklist size. Odds imply a 25 card checklist, meaning true print runs may be slightly higher or lower than shown.
- Light Speed (25): ~6,840
- Ultraviolet Beam (25): ~6,840
- Launched Into Orbit (50): ~1,370
- Stars in the Night (25): ~2,735
- Stella Nova (25): ~2,735
- Planetarium (25): ~170
- Supernova (25): ~100
- Starfractor (100): ~85
Planetary Pursuit:
- Sun: 1,140
- Mercury: 285
- Venus: 190
- Earth: 114
- Mars: 81
- Jupiter: 28
- Saturn: 18
- Uranus: 11
- Neptune: 7
- Pluto: 5
Autograph Print Runs
- Cosmic Chrome Autos (56): ~150 each
- Extraterrestrial Talent Autos (18): ~100 each
- Launched Into Orbit Autos (44): ~53 each
- Stella Nova Autos (22): ~56 each
