A lot of products look great when you only measure cost per parallel. Most of the time that is because they are cheap and packed with endless unnumbered color.
That looks good on paper but in reality most of those cards carry very little real value.
So today’s focus is Cost Per Numbered Card.
This cuts through the fluff, pushes the pretenders aside and gets us to what actually matters. It is where you start to see which products still make sense to open at current market prices and which ones might even be worth sitting on sealed.
This uses the same product pool as yesterday’s data. If you missed it, the link is above.
When I buy wax, this is one of the filters I lean on to keep myself from going completely off the rails. It is still only one piece of the puzzle. Checklist depth, autograph quality and cost per auto all matter too and we will get into those tomorrow.
Below are the best and worst formats for pulling numbered cards from 2025 releases, broken out by price tier.
Data analysis performed by CellDood.
The Cheap Tier
2024 Heritage High continues to show up for a reason. Value boxes are usually anything but valuable, yet these keep delivering. An elite rookie class paired with real chase cards makes this an easy recommendation even at around $35 per box, which is already above MSRP.
For football collectors, Bowman Chrome University retail is a strong play for numbered and parallel value. The Mega boxes in particular stand out with autos landing in roughly half the boxes.
One of the bigger surprises this year has been Topps Update. The extra hits they added do a lot to offset the shallow checklist. If you have followed my product breakdowns, we knew this was coming before release. It is still wild that the Chrome version of this product is so much worse than the paper version.
And no one should be shocked to see Topps Chrome and Chrome Update sitting on the worst side of this list. Chrome was a mess. Somehow the product with the biggest MLB chase of the year, Debut Patches, still managed to fall flat. Not even the Alter Egos or a mountain of lottery tickets could save it.
$101 to $250
Two words. Heritage High.
2025 Heritage High is trying to make a case with lower production but it is still nowhere close to the monster that 2024 Heritage High is. At this point I am mostly wondering why my local shop still has boxes and why I have not bought them all.
Personal note. I know the Wave 1 versus Wave 2 thing is supposed to be a myth. Maybe it is sample size. But my release week rips of 2024 HHN were insane. Then I ripped a Wave 2 case around the National and it was brutal. Take that for what you will.
It is also great to see Pro Debut still holding its own at around $175 a box. It was an absolute steal at the $110 to $120 release price and the sheer volume of autos and parallels will completely ruin you for opening anything else.
Ignore what this list says and avoid Logofractor. The problem is not how many numbered cards you get, it is what they are. No product collapsed harder this year.
$251 to $500
This is the tier where a bad box really starts to hurt. Topps Update keeps landing near the top of the good lists. This does not account for checklist depth but Topps genuinely worked some magic here and made this product far better than it had any right to be.
I absolutely love Bowman Chrome this year. It is one of the best built Bowman Chrome sets I can remember. Other years may benefit from legendary rookie classes but from a design and structure standpoint this one is excellent. I just wish it was not $460 a box now. I was happy ripping it at $300. Somewhere between there and here it stops being fun and starts being serious.
And once again, 2025 Topps Chrome. If Jumbos were in the $101 to $250 tier I still would not touch them. Maybe under $100. Maybe.
$501 and Up
It has to be said that 2025 Topps Chrome Sapphire is one of the most improved products year over year. I still cannot afford it but it sure looks nice from the outside.
It is also wild that one product, Chrome NBA, manages to be both one of the best and one of the worst values in this entire tier when it comes to pulling numbered cards.
Same data as above but not in image form:
Best Cost Per Numbered Card | Under $100
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Heritage High | Value Box | Baseball | $35.00 | $18.42 |
| 2 | 2025 Topps Chrome F1 | Value Box | Racing | $30.00 | $19.74 |
| 3 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Value Box | Football | $20.00 | $35.71 |
| 4 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Mega | Football | $43.00 | $38.39 |
| 5 | 2025 Topps Update | Hanger | Baseball | $13.00 | $41.21 |
| 6 | 2025 Topps Update | Fat Pack | Baseball | $7.00 | $42.98 |
| 7 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Value Box | Combat | $30.00 | $44.12 |
| 8 | 2025 Topps Holiday | Mega | Baseball | $30.00 | $45.00 |
| 9 | 2025 Topps Update | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $45.75 |
| 10 | 2025 Topps Series 2 | Fat Pack | Baseball | $7.00 | $52.78 |
| 11 | 2025-26 Topps NBA Flagship | Fanatics Value | Basketball | $30.00 | $52.80 |
| 12 | 2025 Topps Update | Fanatics Value | Baseball | $30.00 | $53.10 |
| 13 | 2025 Bowman | Value Box | Baseball | $40.00 | $54.05 |
| 14 | 2025 Topps Series 2 | Mega | Baseball | $50.00 | $54.50 |
| 15 | 2025 Topps Update | Super Box | Baseball | $35.00 | $54.60 |
Worst Cost Per Numbered Card | Under $100
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 2025 Archives | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $273.75 |
| 55 | 2025 Topps Holiday NBA | Mega | Basketball | $35.00 | $219.45 |
| 54 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Mega | Baseball | $70.00 | $179.20 |
| 53 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Value Box | Baseball | $35.00 | $172.55 |
| 52 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Fanatics Mega | Baseball | $80.00 | $169.60 |
| 51 | 2025 Bowman Chrome | Mega | Baseball | $70.00 | $169.40 |
| 50 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Value Box | Baseball | $38.00 | $168.00 |
| 49 | 2025-26 Topps Chrome NBA | Mega Box | Basketball | $85.00 | $158.95 |
| 48 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Mega | Baseball | $70.00 | $157.25 |
| 47 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Fanatics Mega | Baseball | $80.00 | $148.00 |
| 46 | 2025-26 Topps Chrome NBA | Value Box | Basketball | $50.00 | $145.50 |
Best Cost Per Numbered Card | $101 to $250
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Heritage High | Hobby | Baseball | $140.00 | $21.31 |
| 2 | 2025 Pro Debut | Hobby | Baseball | $175.00 | $26.92 |
| 3 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Hobby | Football | $130.00 | $36.83 |
| 4 | 2025 Heritage | Hobby | Baseball | $145.00 | $44.62 |
| 5 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Jumbo | Football | $240.00 | $48.29 |
| 6 | 2024 Topps Chrome Boxing | Hobby | Combat | $250.00 | $49.21 |
| 7 | 2025 Heritage High | Hobby | Baseball | $100.00 | $49.26 |
| 8 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Hobby | Combat | $245.00 | $50.83 |
| 9 | 2025 Topps Chrome Logofractor | Mega | Baseball | $120.00 | $53.33 |
| 10 | 2025 Topps Chrome F1 | Hobby | Racing | $240.00 | $60.00 |
Worst Cost Per Numbered Card | $101 to $250
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 2025-26 Topps NBA Flagship | Hobby | Basketball | $250.00 | $176.06 |
| 22 | 2025 Topps Series 1 | Retail Display | Baseball | $110.00 | $161.76 |
| 21 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Fanatics Mega | Basketball | $100.00 | $157.00 |
| 20 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Hobby | Baseball | $225.00 | $144.23 |
| 19 | 2025 Topps Series 1 | Hobby | Baseball | $165.00 | $139.83 |
| 18 | 2025 Archives | Hobby | Baseball | $215.00 | $113.76 |
| 17 | 2025 Topps Series 2 | Retail Display | Baseball | $100.00 | $95.24 |
| 16 | 2025 Bowman’s Best University | Hobby | Football | $250.00 | $82.78 |
| 15 | 2025 Topps Series 2 | Hobby | Baseball | $150.00 | $79.79 |
| 14 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University Sapphire | Hobby | Football | $240.00 | $77.67 |
Best Cost Per Numbered Card | $251 to $500
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Topps Update | Jumbo | Baseball | $300.00 | $56.50 |
| 2 | 2025 Finest | Hobby | Baseball | $400.00 | $65.90 |
| 3 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Breaker’s | Combat | $300.00 | $75.00 |
| 4 | 2024 Topps Chrome Football | Hobby | Football | $375.00 | $93.75 |
| 5 | 2025 Bowman Chrome | Hobby | Baseball | $460.00 | $107.23 |
Worst Cost Per Numbered Card | $251 to $500
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2025 Topps Chrome Black | Hobby | Baseball | $400.00 | $200.00 |
| 13 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Breaker’s | Baseball | $485.00 | $185.11 |
| 12 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Jumbo | Baseball | $440.00 | $181.82 |
| 11 | 2024 Topps Chrome Football | Breaker’s | Football | $425.00 | $164.09 |
| 10 | 2025 Bowman Chrome | Breaker’s | Baseball | $500.00 | $163.40 |
Best Cost Per Numbered Card | $501+
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Topps Tribute | Hobby | Baseball | $800.00 | $165.98 |
| 2 | 2025 Bowman | Jumbo | Baseball | $750.00 | $206.85 |
| 3 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Hobby | Basketball | $635.00 | $245.17 |
| 4 | 2025 Topps Chrome Sapphire | Hobby | Baseball | $850.00 | $250.00 |
| 5 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Breaker’s | Baseball | $600.00 | $255.02 |
Worst Cost Per Numbered Card | $501+
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/# Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Breaker’s | Basketball | $2,840.00 | $581.40 |
| 13 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Jumbo | Basketball | $1,880.00 | $442.35 |
| 12 | 2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire | Hobby | Baseball | $1,200.00 | $357.14 |
| 11 | 2024 Bowman Draft | Hobby (Jumbo) | Baseball | $1,510.00 | $353.63 |
| 10 | 2025 Cosmic Chrome | Hobby | Baseball | $725.00 | $326.58 |
