At first glance this metric seems simple. Boxes cost money. Autos have odds. Divide one by the other.
The real insight comes from comparing retail formats vs hobby formats and seeing whether retail ever makes sense for autographs.
This is where things get uncomfortable.
Data analysis performed by CellDood.
Methodology
Cost Per Auto is not based on Topps’ published odds.
It is based on calculated real-world pull rates.
Why this matters:
- Topps odds often understate true auto frequency
- Real boxes routinely outperform listed odds
Example:
2025 Topps Update Jumbo
Topps odds: 1 auto per box + 2 relics
Actual observed rate: 1.48 autos per box
Anyone who opened this product already knows this.
The spreadsheet simply confirms it.
Every Cost Per Auto number in this analysis reflects what boxes actually produce, not what the box says.
What Comes Next
Tomorrow all three days of data will be merged:
- Cost per parallel
- Cost per numbered card
- Cost per auto
Baseline checklist values will also be applied.
That will produce a clean ranking of best and worst formats at current market prices across all price tiers.
Takeaways
Cheap Tier
Bowman Chrome University formats are crushing it.
- Strong auto efficiency
- Likely to age very well once Topps NFL arrives later in the year
Now compare:
- Top 10 Cheap Tier formats
- Top 10 $101 to $250 Hobby formats
The gap is obvious.
Retail formats are generally not the answer for autographs.
Retail can look good for:
- Parallels
- Numbered cards
- Raw card volume
But for autos:
- Hobby wins almost every time
Flagship retail in particular is awful for autograph value.
It is best avoided.
$101 to $250 Tier
This is where Pro Debut dominates.
- Best Cost Per Auto of any product
- Still true even at $175 per box
College football products also stand out.
- Extremely strong auto output
- Prices may rise once Topps NFL launches at NBA-level pricing
Archives ranks #2 among baseball products.
- The checklist includes filler Fan Favorite autos
- But the overall auto math is still excellent
2024 Heritage High continues to appear near the top.
- It keeps showing up across every value metric
- Very likely to appear again when all three days are combined
Any product in this tier with:
- $1,000+ average cost per auto
is best avoided.
One of those happens to be one of the most popular NBA products on the market.
Better formats exist.
$251 to $500 Tier
Seeing 2025 Topps Chrome show up near the top is surprising.
- Very few autos are actually desirable
- But strictly on Cost Per Auto, it briefly looks competitive
This tier contains:
- Stronger products
- Bigger chase autos
- Much more downside
This is where ripping starts to get dangerous.
A bad run of boxes here can wipe you out fast.
This is especially true for products like Topps Chrome Black.
$501 and Up
Topps Chrome Update
- Prices have dropped
- Now viable in this tier
- Has real moon-shot upside
- Also has many dud boxes and a weak auto checklist
A realistic expectation is:
- About 10% return
- Anything better is a win
Cosmic Chrome
- Autos average over $2,000 per hit
- Nearly double the cost of NBA Chrome Breaker autos
- Boxes cost around $725
Even though autos are not the main chase, that pricing is brutal.
At $350 it would be reasonable.
At $725 it is painful.
Good luck.
Same information as above, extracted from the images.
Best Cost Per Auto | Under $100
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Mega | Football | $43.00 | $84.41 |
| 2 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Mega | Combat | $70.00 | $118.30 |
| 3 | 2025 Bowman Chrome University | Value Box | Football | $20.00 | $196.02 |
| 4 | 2024 Topps Chrome Football | Value Box | Football | $30.00 | $236.40 |
| 5 | 2025 Bowman | Value Box | Baseball | $40.00 | $243.60 |
| 6 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Value Box | Combat | $30.00 | $251.70 |
| 7 | 2025-26 Topps NBA Flagship | Costco Super Box | Basketball | $40.00 | $259.20 |
| 8 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Value Box | Baseball | $35.00 | $263.90 |
| 9 | 2025 Bowman Chrome | Mega | Baseball | $70.00 | $275.10 |
| 10 | 2025 Heritage High | Value Box | Baseball | $35.00 | $291.67 |
| 11 | 2025 Archives | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $292.00 |
| 12 | 2024 Topps Chrome Football | Mega | Football | $65.00 | $319.80 |
| 13 | 2025 Bowman | Mega | Baseball | $50.00 | $357.50 |
| 14 | 2025 Heritage | Mega | Baseball | $48.00 | $385.92 |
| 15 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Fanatics Mega | Baseball | $80.00 | $404.00 |
Worst Cost Per Auto | Under $100
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 2025 Topps Holiday | Tin | Baseball | $15.00 | N/A |
| 55 | 2025 Topps Chrome F1 | Value Box | Racing | $30.00 | $3,147.90 |
| 54 | 2025 Topps Series 1 | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $2,463.00 |
| 53 | 2025 Topps Update | Fat Pack | Baseball | $7.00 | $2,069.27 |
| 52 | 2025 Topps Series 2 | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $1,775.00 |
| 51 | 2025 Topps Holiday | Mega | Baseball | $30.00 | $1,467.00 |
| 50 | 2025 Heritage | Fat Pack | Baseball | $7.00 | $1,316.56 |
| 49 | 2025 Topps Update | Value Box | Baseball | $25.00 | $1,205.25 |
| 48 | 2025 Topps Series 1 | Fanatics Value | Baseball | $30.00 | $1,200.00 |
| 47 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Mega | Baseball | $70.00 | $1,184.05 |
| 46 | 2025 Heritage | Hanger | Baseball | $13.00 | $1,120.05 |
Best Cost Per Auto | $251 to $500
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Topps Chrome | Jumbo | Baseball | $440.00 | $146.67 |
| 2 | 2025 Topps Chrome UFC | Breaker’s | Combat | $300.00 | $150.00 |
| 3 | 2025 Bowman Chrome | Breaker’s | Baseball | $500.00 | $166.67 |
| 4 | 2024 Topps Chrome Football | Hobby | Football | $375.00 | $187.50 |
| 5 | 2025 Finest | Hobby | Baseball | $400.00 | $200.00 |
Worst Cost Per Auto | $251 to $500
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2025-26 Topps NBA Flagship | Jumbo | Basketball | $450.00 | $450.00 |
| 13 | 2025 Topps Chrome Black | Hobby | Baseball | $400.00 | $400.00 |
| 12 | 2025 Bowman | Hobby | Baseball | $380.00 | $380.00 |
| 11 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Hobby | Baseball | $300.00 | $300.00 |
| 10 | 2025 Topps Series 1 | Jumbo | Baseball | $265.00 | $265.00 |
Best Cost Per Auto | $501+
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Jumbo | Baseball | $565.00 | $185.25 |
| 2 | 2025 Bowman | Jumbo | Baseball | $750.00 | $251.67 |
| 3 | 2025 Topps Tribute | Hobby | Baseball | $800.00 | $253.97 |
| 4 | 2025 Bowman | Breaker’s | Baseball | $800.00 | $266.67 |
| 5 | 2025 Topps Chrome Update | Breaker’s | Baseball | $600.00 | $317.50 |
Worst Cost Per Auto | $501+
| Rank | Product | Format | Sport | Current Price | Cost/Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2025 Cosmic Chrome | Hobby | Baseball | $725.00 | $2,035.94 |
| 13 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Breaker’s | Basketball | $2,840.00 | $1,250.00 |
| 12 | 2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire | Hobby | Baseball | $1,200.00 | $1,034.48 |
| 11 | 2025 Topps Chrome Sapphire | Hobby | Baseball | $850.00 | $685.48 |
| 10 | 2025-26 Chrome NBA | Hobby | Basketball | $635.00 | $635.00 |
